Ismaël extension symbolic rather than meaningful but raises hopes of change
Club statements regarding Watford’s head coach tend to bookend their tenure. One to say welcome, another to say thanks but no thanks. Very little comes as a surprise anymore, yet news of Valérien Ismaël’s extension just five months into his reign came as just that.
We’d been tipped the wink by The Athletic’s Adam Leventhal prior to the 2–0 win over Birmingham City on September 16. But even that scoop made it no less remarkable when the news landed on Tuesday. In the intervening weeks, the Hornets drew 2–2 at home to West Bromwich Albion, put in their most insipid display of the season — a listless 3–0 reverse at Leeds United — before imploding spectacularly at home to struggling Middlesbrough on Saturday. Ismaël’s decision to change from a back four to a three-man defence meant he was — by his own admission — largely culpable. Little since that win, only the second of the season, suggested those reports of an extension would be followed through on.
With tough trips to in-form Sunderland and Cardiff City to come before the international break — owner Gino Pozzo’s preferred sacking window — supporters had understandably begun to fear the worst. Yet here we are, against all odds, with a coach who has been backed after collecting nine points from as many games. Rob Edwards, infamously, only lasted 10 games and 14 points before his tenure was cut off in its infancy.
So what does it really mean?
Watford have always maintained the firing of head coaches is based on more than just results. Pozzo has an office at the training ground and says he watches training. He and technical director Cristiano Giaretta are clearly close to on-field matters — too close, according to former coach Quiqué Sánchez Flores — and feel they are better placed to make these decisions as a result. Certainly better placed than fans. It’s why the Hornets controversially ditched the aforementioned Flores the first time, despite delivering a 13th-place Premier League finish and an FA Cup semi-final after promotion. It’s why Flores got the job in the first place, instead of retaining Slaviša Jokanović who had masterminded promotion. It’s why Jokanović was allowed to mastermind promotion, rather than Billy McKinlay who lasted a week and two matches. So despite averaging a point a game, Pozzo and, to a lesser extent, Giarretta, have seen something in Ismaël’s work that has convinced them he’s the right man.
Discipline and culture have been buzzwords around the Frenchman’s reign. Already, we’ve seen two members of the leadership group — Imrân Louza and Ben Hamer — dropped for disciplinary indiscretions. Doubtless, this has happened under previous regimes but it’s been kept in-house. But this season it’s been publicised by the club to help feed the narrative of Ismaël The Disciplinarian.
There’s also been lots of talk about having the right players. Ismaël rejected potential deadline-day additions as they weren’t right. In the last week, he’s explained it’s unlikely the Hornets will dip into the free agent market to supplement an already thin squad as the requisite quality of player won’t be available. Speaking at the summer’s fan forum, chairman and CEO Scott Duxbury was at pains to point out everyone left after the great summer cull wanted to be here.
On the field, there has — at times — been a clear style of play. An identity, even. It’s been less evident in recent weeks but the key pillars of an Ismaël Watford side are at least understood: high pressing, intensity, moving the ball swiftly while retaining possession. Some of those things are borne out in the stats. Watford rank sixth in the Championship for passes attempted and completed. It’s fourth for passes into the final third, both attempted and completed. They are sixth for passes per defensive action — i.e. the number of opposition passes they allow before attempting to win the ball ball. Better still, the Hornets rank second for passes allowed per opposition possession. Even a defence that has looked shaky in recent games has given up chances worth just 10.9 expected goals (xG) — fourth in the Championship. That they’ve managed to concede 13 is an issue worth exploration.
These are some of the reasons Ismaël has been awarded an extension. The elephant in the room is that they have yet to yield consistent performances or results. That is where the contract extension becomes a PR exercise. This is a fairly straightforward transaction. Pozzo has demonstrated faith in the head coach who must now repay that him with results. Even though Duxbury avoided declaring a target for the season and instead focused on his pride in Watford’s Championship status, circling the bottom three is unlikely to be what the hierarchy had in mind when they appointed Ismaël in May.
This show of faith represents a dramatic 180 given Duxbury previously stated the reason they don’t invest in head coaches or give them autonomy as they will either do badly and be sacked, or do well and leave for another club. In Pozzo’s decade-long tenure, only Marco Silva has been the subject of admiring glances from elsewhere. Pozzo flatly refused to let the Portuguese join Everton in 2017. Results and performances fell off a cliff, so he sacked him a few months later anyway. Experience tells us that regardless of the agreement between Ismaël and Watford, he will be sacked at some point. Whether in a week, month, or year, this is how his time at Vicarage Road ends.
All of which suggests this news is symbolic more than anything. An announcement designed as much to prove a leopard can change its spots as to reward the work done since May. Perhaps even that Watford’s owner has learned his lesson and taken accountability for a malaise that left the team a point and a place above the drop zone prior to the midweek round of fixtures. A defiant show that a man who has gone through 18 ‘permanent’ head coaches in 10 years can stick with one.
Not that the majority of Hornets fans mind. At this point, we’re so desperate for something to stick, for someone to cling to, that the identity of that person doesn’t really matter. Nor does it even matter if the jury is out on Ismaël’s performance. He is broadly likeable, doesn’t (seemingly) take any nonsense and there have been glimpses of what his footballing ideology is. The role of head coach under Pozzo has been whittled away so that is virtually all that remains for fans to judge them by.
For different reasons, all parties are invested in this working. Only time will tell whether it does. But along with death and taxes, being sacked as Watford head coach is one of life’s few certainties. A cosmetic contract extension won’t change that.