How Watford replace Étienne Capoue and why it will be virtually impossible
No subject quite divides opinion among my Watford-supporting friends like Étienne Capoue.
There are those who never understood the Frenchman and are glad to see the back of him. Then there are a couple of us, smaller in number, who understand football and appreciate the subtle brilliance of Watford’s former №29. I say subtle brilliance, there isn’t much subtlety to the fact he is second only to Wilfred Ndidi for Premier League interceptions (per 90) over the last three seasons.
Disclaimer: Capoue was playing in a Watford side which rarely controlled possession and lost a lot of matches. On that basis, he was always going to make a lot of interceptions. But that is to overlook the fact he is an interception machine. This season, if we take Europe’s top-five leagues (England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France) plus the Championship, Capoue comes out on top for interceptions per 90 with 3.98.
Whether you can appreciate it or not, that is talent.
Capoue departs Watford for the side fifth in LaLiga, Villarreal. He would have left last summer for Valencia, had Los Che been able to get their house in order long enough to prise the 32-year-old away from Vicarage Road. Capoue had made his desire to leave post relegation clear and we can reasonably assume the one-time club-record signing is one of the higher earners in WD18. Given the financial realities of relegation in a Covid-19 world, moving Capoue on was a no-brainer — even if it weakened the team.
Admittedly, we have not seen the best of Capoue this season. His lazy swipe at the ball resulting in a comical own goal at Huddersfield Town was indicative of his season to date. But the numbers say otherwise and this is why you have to use data alongside the eye test.
After all, it was Capoue who nicked possession back on the edge of his own penalty area against Norwich City on Boxing Day, in what was his final Hornets appearance. Possession regained, he zipped the ball forward for Andre Gray before setting Ken Sema away down the left to cross for Ismaïla Sarr’s match-winning strike. In seconds, Capoue illustrated his unique combination of qualities; winning possession and setting a counter-attack in motion.
Clearly, however good I or any Watford fan thinks he is, there’s a reason he ended up at Watford. At one point he was tipped up as the ‘next big thing out of France’ during his Toulouse days. When he finally got his big move to Tottenham Hotspur, it did not work out. Injuries made life harder but being tainted by association of being a ‘Gareth Bale money’ purchase finished Capoue in north London.
Even in his first season at Watford, it was hard to nail down exactly what he did. His laboured running style made it look like he was getting through a lot of work without actually appearing to achieve much. Covering the Hornets for the Watford Observer that season, it was hard to escape the feeling he only turned it on for TV fixtures and trips to the big six. In other words, big games where he could perform for his audience.
The appointment of Gracia changed that. Having found his goalscoring touch under Walter Mazzarri, Capoue was moved to the base of midfield and quickly began to demonstrate his defensive nous. He would later reveal it was his best position and where he’d always wanted to play.
Named Player of the Year in 2018/19, he was one of the few not to totally disgrace themselves the following year and provided one of the highlights of Project Restart — that pass against Leicester City.
Capoue’s crime was doing everything with the lackadaisical air of a man who knew it was all too easy for him. He was never a blood-and-thunder player — though he loved a scrape down the back of the Achilles of an opposing player, as Wilfred Zaha will attest. His departure leaves Watford weaker and, naturally, the question is who will now take up his place in midfield?
The most obvious answer seems to be Nathaniel Chalobah. But the two are alike rather than identical. Using the Twenty3 Content Toolbox, I overlayed their persona radars — which take data for metrics associated with a positional role — for the current campaign. It quickly becomes apparent Chalobah is not in Capoue’s class. While he is a decent defensive midfielder who can break up the play, he lacks the Frenchman’s passing range or ability. In fact, the former Chelsea man’s ability to surrender possession cheaply has been infuriating this season.
In fact, when you compare Watford’s four central midfielders this season — we’re ignoring the largely injured Will Hughes and Tom Dele-Bashiru who haven’t clocked up the minimum number of minutes — no-one comes close to the languid Frenchman in any of the defensive metrics in which he thrives.
TCK=Tackles Attempted, TCKW=Tackles Won, INT=Interceptions, DWON=Duels Won, DLOST=Duels Lost, PSAT=Possessions Won in Attacking Third, PSMT=Possessions Won in Middle Third, PSDT=Possessions Won in Defensive Third, PA=Passes Attempted, PC=Passess Completed and FP=Forward Passes.
Clearly, we’re talking about a fairly unique individual; someone who can win the ball back better than most but also distribute. Replacing Capoue without spending large sums on a transfer fee and wages is not only difficult, it almost negates selling him in the first place. Although we shouldn’t overlook the fact he wanted to leave in the summer and only came round when it was apparent a move wouldn’t be forthcoming — presumably to keep himself in the shop window ahead of January.
Adam Leventhal of The Athletic has already reported Watford will seek to replace Capoue. But it’s hard to imagine too much money being thrown at the position. Watford will have to be smart with their recruitment and potentially dip into the loan market to find a stylistically similar player.
In anticipation of his exit, I used the Twenty3 Content Toolbox’s ‘Discover’ feature to attempt to identify suitable targets. By setting a group of parameters by which I wanted to search — namely ball-winning and passing ability — I searched LaLiga, Ligue 1, Serie A and the Championship as these seemed the leagues Watford are most likely to recruit from.
The results are interesting and underline task facing relatively new sporting director Cristiano Giaretta, Gino Pozzo and co. We already know no-one has averaged more interceptions per 90 (3.98) in any of Europe’s top-five leagues this season but Capoue also comes out well for completed tackles and duels won. He’s in good company — Juventus’ Rodrigo Bentancur and PSG pair Idrissa Gueye and Marco Verratti are all comparables based on their defensive output. Clearly, none of them are going to be pitching up at the Vic anytime soon.
So, let’s be more realistic. What if Watford were to look in the Football League? Applying the same filters to the Championship, League One and League Two, we get the following names:
Interestingly, Nathaniel Chalobah is high on the list but it’s Jack Powell of Crawley Town and Ben Whiteman of Doncaster Rovers who come up best for interceptions. Clearly, there’s an associated risk in signing players from League One or Two and, typically, it’s not something Watford have done over the last eight years of Pozzo ownership.
Whatever business the Hornets do in January, replacing Capoue is going to be the priority — but it will be far from easy.